The latest BBC "poll of polls" shows a 1 percentage point margin between the Conservatives and Labour (34% to 33%) with a third of the vote being shared between minor parties. The most significant opinion change since 2010 has been the switching of support from the Liberal Democrats to the UK Independence Party (which wants independence from the European Union).
As everyone knows, however, under the first past the post electoral system, percentages of the vote don't translate directly into percentages of seats in the parliament, and the UKIP is unlikely to add to the 2 it has at present (from defections from the Conservatives), despite having 14% support. Most of the 59 seats in Scotland are tipped to go to the Scottish National Party while the Lib Dems will keep maybe half of the 57 seats they won overall in 2010. Post-election in a hung parliament, it's hard to see the Lib Dems seeing any benefit in switching to an alliance with Labour, while the SNP is unlikely to want any alliance.
It will be interesting to see what turnout there is -- the 65% in 2010 compares with the 80% turnout for the last Presidential election in France.
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