Tuesday, May 8, 2012

France - Sarkozy out, Hollande in

The second stage of the French presidential voting last Sunday saw incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy lose to Parti Socialiste challenger Francois Hollande as had been relentlessly predicted by opinion polls, although the result was closer than predicted: 51.6% to 48.4%.

An interesting feature was that the number of "spoilt and null votes" increased from 701,190 in the first stage to 2,146,408 and the turnout in total was slightly higher.

Public support for the Parti Socialiste itself is not great - the last opinion poll in March found that only 30% of respondants thought it would do a better job of running the country while 60% didn't.  Thus it seems it was more an anti-Sarkozy result than anything else.

In practical terms France hasn't exactly had an austerity regime anyway and the government presently spends a high 55% of GDP which is more than the 53% it was in 2001, for example.  Hollande's belief that he can spend even more of it may by tempered by practical realities.

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