a referendum on the UK leaving the European Union is now almost certain

A pledge that the Conservative Party, which now governs alone, made during the general election campaign was to hold a referendum on EU membership by the end of 2017.  The election showed a big jump in support for the UK Independence Party whose main objective is leaving the EU which the UK has been a member of since 1973.   Although not overtly anti-immigrant like the National Front in France, this party wants a 5 year ban on unskilled immigrants.

Support shown in opinion polls for leaving the EU has fluctuated a lot, however, and has actually dropped in the last few years to around 35% in the most recent polls.