Whoever wins the election on 6 November, it is fairly certain that voter turnout will be down on the 57.3% it was in 2008. In August, USA Today published surveys showing that the constant negative TV commercials from both the Obama and Romney camps were turning off voters.
Most political analysts believe that 40 of the 50 states will vote the same way they did in 2008, with 10 states at this point too close to call. Obama can afford to lose some but not all of them.
Would a change in the White House make a whole lot of difference? It would for some things - Federal spending on a range of internal programs would be cut under Romney & Ryan, but despite the campaign rhetoric, foreign policy will not change. Although he had to win over hard-line factions in his party to get the nomination, the reality of his record as Massachusetts Governor is that Romney is a modest reformer on several popular issues. Traditionally, Republicans favor international free trade without restrictions which is good for NZ, but not a lot of progress was made under the Dubya presidency.
Ultimately it will come down to who Americans consider is their better 'feel good' chief spokesman, and our feeling is that Obama has the edge on that score.
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