Saturday, June 10, 2017

UK: Theresa Hasn't

In the UK, political colors have the opposite significance to those in the US: the Conservatives are the 'true blues' while the socialists are the reds.  You can't help surmising that the areas shaded blue on the map are nice to live in, those in red not so nice.

It seemed the obvious thing to do: the parliamentary opposition Labour Party was down in the polls and led by a loony -- so why not hold a snap election to improve the narrow working majority of seats?

But it didn't work out like that.  For one thing opinion polls are tools of analysis, not tools of prediction: they don't take account of those who are undecided at the time, but decide on the day or close to it.  For another, the assumption that those who voted for UKIP in 2015 would switch to the Conservatives now that the single issue party's raison d'etre had gone also proved to be wrong: more of them switched to Labour than to the Conservatives.  It's safe to assume that a lot of those who voted for both UKIP and Brexit were working class in the same way that Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen were heavily supported by blue collar workers.

While on the subject of France, the legislatives -- the elections for the 577-seat Assemblée Nationale -- take place on Sunday.  Opinion polls there show new President Macron's party winning most of the seats.

BBC results analysis

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